Author: Mike Paterson
15

It's not been a good week for the UK 26 May

Monday's tragic events in Manchester have cast a sad shadow over the whole week, and will continue to do so.

Campaigning for the 8 June General Election was rightly put on hold but has now resumed and PM May's hope to fight it on purely a Brexit/fear of negotiations basis has been derailed as highlighted by the latest opinion polls. I will stress again I have no political bias here, and remain just a more than interested observer.

I cast doubt at the outset, for a number of reasons, over the assumed landslide victory expected for May and I suggested a short Tory seat play much to the amusement/scorn of my regular detractors. The margin of victory is now at the very least in greater doubt. Polls are always there to be proven wrong as we know but similarly the political landscape globally has shifted too in recent times.

In any case it's put another wobble under the pound quite apart from the on-going state of the UK terrorist alert at "critical" with all police leave cancelled and 3800 soldiers ready to be deployed on our streets.

Ironically/perversely a large Tory majority suggests a harder line of Brexit, ,imho, and hence uncertainty for the pound initially at least until the facts become clear. A narrow lead/majority, as she has now points to a softer Brexit which might be considered better for the pound. Keep up at the back!

Little surprise then that markets have been trading tightly of late especially when you throw in the Trump factor and uncertainty over a US interest rate hike.

The latest UK election poll now seems to have tipped the scales a little bit and we've seen GBPUSD down to 1.2867 after its last hurrah above 1.3000 yesterday into the Q1 GDP second reading. EURGBP remains underpinned and testing 0.8700-20 resistance.

Overall the pound has lost a bit of its recent Teflon-coated appeal with GBPJPY a prime mover again but, whilst I continue to play from the short-side in my rally selling/jobbing I don't see any great collapse at this point. Still ranging in essence but with a softer bias.

The jury remains very much out but we'll know a bit more on the 9th June.

        May - Did she assume too much when calling the snap election ?

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Author: Adam Button
3

The Federal Reserve's educational video series is pure gold

The Philly Fed's DVD series has quietly appeared on youtube It don't know how I've never seen this before. Evidently, back in 2013 the Philly Fed produced a video series on what the Federal Reserve is, and how it works. It's about 2 hours long.

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Author: Mike Paterson
3

Having a good day? It just got even better with this story.

Inspirational news reported by the BBC today 15 May I talk/teach a lot about keeping all things firmly in perspective - in life and trading- and this story can teach us all a bit about humility whilst retaining ambition.

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Author: Mike Paterson
1

BOE MPC Preview: Why Carney & Co will show caution today

Yes folks, it's Bank of England time again today at 11.00 GMT The interest rate decision and latest inflation report are both out at 11.00 GMT (Midday UK) followed by the Carney presser at 11.30 GMT.

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Author: Adam Button
3

Even the best make mistakes: Buffett cuts IBM position

Warren Buffett bet on the wrong tech company Warren Buffett told CNBC today that he sold about one-third of his IBM shares. The company was a large position for Berkshire since he started purchasing shares early in 2011. His adjusted cost isn't known but he started out by buying nearly $11 billion starting in March and peaking in Q3.

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Author: Adam Button
41

The wage-trade is the gift that keeps on giving

Wages overshadow jobs once again For more than a year the nonfarm payrolls trade has been to ignore jobs growth and focus on wages. Once again today it paid. The US dollar hit session highs on the jobs headline but quickly turned around and hit session lows because wages were soft.

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Author: Mike Paterson
8

Preview: Have the ECB enough ammunition to cause any upsets today?

Today's decision from the ECB is once again eagerly awaited 27 April Policy/rates to remain on hold but it's the press conference that will set the robots off so that means we should expect some volatility regardless of overall stance.

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Author: Mike Paterson
33

When sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand

A few thoughts on the UK election fallout for the pound 19 April What a crazy 24 hours eh? Rumours of a snap UK election sent the pound lower and confirmation of the fact then sent it on a relatively one-way ticket to the stars.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
63

What is your most inspiring trading mantra?

Do you have a motto or saying that you apply to your trading? All through life we can probably remember those single moments where a word or phrase given to us by more experienced people stuck in the mind and became part of our make up.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
21

Forex trading education: GBPJPY is sure a choppy pair. How can you trade it.

Plenty of chop in the pair The GBPJPY is certainly not the friendliness of pairs from a trending perspective. Looking at the 4-hour chart below, there is a lot of chop in between some pretty wide trend lines.  If you are to trade this pair, you need to accept the volatility.   

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Author: Mike Paterson
31

What happens to the pound once Article 50 is finally triggered - Another view

What happens to the pound after Article 50 is triggered on 29 March? Here at ForexLive we pride ourselves on bringing you a balanced and varied view on potential moves be they data , CB or major forthcoming events so here's my humble take/guess on what will happen after UK PM Theresa May finally pulls the trigger to exit the EU tomorrow.

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Author: Ryan Littlestone
73

I'm facing another psychological battle with my EURUSD longs

Here we are again up at one of the big resistance points in the path of my EURUSD longs. How should I play it this time? The 1.0800/30 levels have been big levels for the euro since late 2015. At various times we've seen them as major support, and more recently as resistance.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
8

Reading the technical story: EURUSD holds support. Works toward key resistance today.

Something had to give yesterday. What is the story today? If you recall from yesterday, something had to give in the EURUSD (). The pair was in a range. The range was getting more confined. The trend line on the downside gave way BUT the price had other support targets it needed to grind through including the rising 100 hour MA. That grind lower stalled at the 100 hour MA in trading today.  

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Author: Greg Michalowski
3

How the Euro could break up - or be saved - Bloomberg

3 ways for each The Bloomberg Politic section has an interesting article titled "". How the Euro Could Break Up - or Be Saved In their words: It is a good read and certainly a must for traders maneuvering through the current political risks in Europe. 

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Author: Greg Michalowski
17

Snapchat. Snapcharts. The story is in the pictures...

Snapchats of a hike. Snapcharts of the USDJPY.   The stories unfold in snaps. I went on a hike this weekend and while I walked, I got to thinking about Snapchat.  I - not being in the demographics for Snapchat - didn't get it until I got it.  In my work life I look at "snaps" and they talk to me.  The "snaps" are in the form of charts. They are my Snapcharts.  My Snapcharts tell me the story that "the market" is telling.  If you can do the same thing, you will find that you see what the market is thinking more clearly.

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