A few big lessons
The best thing I've read today is from Morgan Housel at The Motley Fool. He writes about the things he's pretty sure about, in the big picture.
Recessions and bear markets are very easy to predict, except for the timing, cause, magnitude, duration, location, and policy response.
Jeff Bezos once said "Your profit margin is my opportunity," which is basically all of economics summarized in six words.
Bubbles occur because confidence rises as fast as asset prices. People don't just get excited about making money; they feel brilliant, and intellectually justified to play harder in the next round.
Look at today's five largest companies in the world. Fifteen years ago, one of them didn't exist, one was a tiny start-up, one was a belittled relic of the dot-com bust, another was fighting to stay relevant after flirting with bankruptcy a few years before. I suspect the next 15 years will be even more extreme.
Good ideas rarely come in meetings. They come in the shower, in the car, or while going for a walk. Companies should recognize this and give employees more time to think idly.
If you tell people what they want to hear, you can be wrong indefinitely without penalty. This explains the careers of many pundits.
Many rich people will always have money problems, because expenses increase just as fast as wealth. This probably true for countries as well.
Everything I've learned about investing points to the idea that simplicity almost to the point of abdication is the way to success for most people.
He continues with a few more here.
