BOE MPC Preview: Why Carney & Co will show caution today

Author: Mike Paterson | Category: Education

Yes folks, it's Bank of England time again today at 11.00 GMT

The interest rate decision and latest inflation report are both out at 11.00 GMT (Midday UK) followed by the Carney presser at 11.30 GMT.

No rate or QE change is expected but the vote will be keenly observed. Last time out in March the vote was 9-1 with Forbes going for a hike and some others talking in more hawkish tones.

Has anything changed since to add to those actually voting for a hike ? Not really. While data has generally been positive, bar retail sales ( and that's key too ), there is still all the unknowns of Brexit, global economic concerns and now the added spectre of a UK General Election.

That all adds up to a heady cocktail of uncertainty/conjecture and I believe Carney will respect that.

Inflation forecasts may well be upped given generally prevailing conditions but here too I expect Carney to temper talk of overrunning targets by repeating that this overshoot will be temporary and inflation will start falling again next year and 2019.

Government won't want rate hikes any time soon and with inflation outstripping wages ( hence fall in retail sales ) Carney will be trying to placate the hawks around him. He will be helped in his argument by recent fall in commodity prices.

I stand by my view that the BOE will not be raising rates this year and probably not in 2018 either. All the uncertainty should see that common sense prevails but there is an argument to say they might take advantage of the current inflation spurt to hike rates ,say 0.25%, sometime during the cycle just to give them a bit of wiggle-room after the post EU referendum panic rate cut, encouraged no doubt by the May government.

So in summary we should not rule out more hawkish tones today and the algos will grab hold of that but as always the devil will be in the detail. Carney could easily seek to calm markets in his presser if he sees any over reaction prior. The reverse true also ofc.

Before all that we have UK industrial and mftg production plus trade balance data at 08.30 GMT

Plenty of GBPUSD sellers around 1.3000 then 1.3020 and 1.3050 should cap rallies while a break of 1.2880-1.2900 should see further acceleration into 1.2850. EURGBP has demand into 0.8350 then 0.8330 with offers/res at 0.8430-50.

As always, trade the fact. Ours is not to reason why...

Watch the presser live here

                                      Carney to proceed with caution

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