Hanging above and below the 100 hour MA.

The USDJPY is little changed post the US data.

Productivity in the US for the 3Q was lower at 3.1% but wages were higher. If you make more $ but create the same amount of goods, the productivity goes down. That is what seems to have happened. So there is good and bad but overall, the 3.1% is a good productivity number. The average from 2007 to 2105 is only 1.3%.

As far as trade, the deficit was larger at -42.6 (est -42.0B). Last month it was -36.2. If the deficit increases that is negative for GDP (all things equal). So GDP might be expected to fall in the GDP estimates for the 4Q.

Technically, the USDJPY is trading above and below the 100 hour MA today. That MA comes in at 113.95 currently. The range for the day is narrow at 68 pips (vs 22 day average of 157 pips). The is room to roam but which way?

Looking at the hourly chart the pairs low today stalled at the 38.2% retracement in the Asian Pacific session. That level comes at 113.494. The high stalled just ahead of the high from Friday at 114.199. We sit in the middle of that range. A support level held. A resistance level held.

That says to me, the market is balanced. The buyers and the sellers are fighting it out and looking for the next push.

Which way will it push? Will there be a catalyst.

If buying, we need to see the price get and stay above the 100 hour MA at 113.95. Since it is close to 114.00 you might want to see that level broken as well . If it can't that is a problem, isn't it?

On the downside, the 113.80 to 88 area is where there were some swing levels in the past (see green circles). We fell below the level as NY traders entered at 7 AM to 8 AM ET and went ot 113.66. We are back above that level now and trading quietly. If it moves below the 113.80 level we should see sellers push lower. I would expect that.

Now we don't know, but if those levels are containing the market now, we can trade them and look for follow through momentum. If going lower we need to get below 113.494. If going higher we want to see 114.199 broken and stay broken.

Alternatively, we could do nothing at this neutral level and trade a break of the high or low for the day and look for momentum on those breaks.

In all cases, we need to be on the lookout for momentum. If the price now moves above the 100 hour MA, we would like to see buyers pushing higher. Get above the 114.00 level. It is only 4 pips from the 100 hour MA. If we break the 113.80 level make a move to the 113.66 low reached as NY traders entered. If momentum does not show, the market is really unsure and uninterested. It may be one of those days. Right now, it is one of those days, but all hands are on deck.