The FOMC meet July 25 and 26; I posted two previews already but here is one from GS

(Earlier:

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Goldman Sachs economics from their client note (this is a summary):

  • We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement.
  • The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further.
  • We think the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the balance sheet announcement is now closer at hand.

Looking ahead,

  • we continue to expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet normalization in September.
  • We see a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December, for a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year.

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And, just two key items of focus:

  • Investors will likely focus their attention on possible changes to the language describing inflation and the timing of balance sheet normalization.
  • The other key question about the July statement is whether the FOMC will change the paragraph describing balance sheet policy.