Risk elevated.

The Fed decision is less than an hour away, and with all the balls in the air regarding balance sheet taper, dot plot, central tendencies, and what is said by Chair Yellen, the risks are high. Add to the equation that the market is about 50-50 for one more tightening, that can turn the dollar higher or lower depending on the tipping point.

So what technical levels are tipping points for bullish and bearish for some of the major currency pairs.

EURUSD

The EURUSD is a little more bullish heading into the report. Making it more bullish is the price is above the 100 hour MA, the 200 hour MA and the 50% of the up and down range that has confined the pair over the last 18 or so trading days.

What would tip the bias back lower? Well the 100, 200 and 50% retracement levels are all nearly on top of each other at 1.1957 -119.60. Move below that level and the bulls turn to bears.

On the topside, the high for the day at 1.2021 followed by 1.2042 (swing low from 2012) would increase the bullishness for the pair. The 1.2092-96 is another key are to get above. The 1.2096 is the 38.2% of the move down from the 2011 high.

USDJPY

The USDJPY sits between the 100 day MA at 111.10 and the 200 day MA at 112.17. Those levels are the levels to eye below and above. In between is the 61.8% of the move down from the July high at 111.749.

A move below 111.10 shifts the technical bias more to the downside.

A move above 111.749 and then 112.175 shifts the bias more to the upside.

Staying in between is more neutral and says the buyers and sellers at this level are still unsure of the directional bias.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD is going into the FOMC with a more bullish bias.

The pair is above the post-Brexit corrective highs from June 2016 at 1.3532, July 2016 at 1.3479 and September 2016 at 1.3443. Stay above those levels (even on a dip from the current 1.3579) keeps the bulls more in control. Move below and the buyers give up.

Another risk area?

Looking at the hourly chart, the 100 hour MA at 1.35134 and a trend line at 1.3505 is a key risk area (see chart below). Stay above would be good for the bulls.

USDCAD

The USDCAD is moving lower into the 100 hour MA at 1.22297. That is a lower extreme along with the 200 hour MA at 1.21894 that if broken would turn the bias more bearish for the USDCAD.

On the topside, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 1.22928. The 38.2% of the move down from August 31 high comes in at 1.2290. If that area is broken on the topside, a move toward 1.2235-1.2339 will be eyed. That area defined lows on August 31 and September 5th and was where the high peaked on Monday.