Forex technical analysis: USDJPY stays above key support but...

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdjpy

... the upside is capped too.  Still waiting for the break and run

The USDJPY is contained. Really contained. The range for the day is only 31 pips. The average over the last month of trading is 81 pips. There is a lot of room to roam. Be aware. 


Technically, the pair stalled against the 112.208 level. That is the low of an area (112.208-316) that has stalled falls for most of the last 12 trading days.  

Now there were failed breaks on Tuesday and again yesterday, but those breaks failed (yesterday's low was higher than Tuesday). Today, the low was higher AND stalled at that 112.208. Buyers leaning? Looks that way.

That is the bullish technical news. 

The not so bullish technical news is the highs are not really showing buyers love the market. The 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines in the chart above) are still putting a lid on the topside. In fact, after a brief break on Tuesday that failed, traders have leaned against the 100 hour MA (currently at 112.497). The 200 hour MA comes in at 112.638.  If buyers are leaning against support below, the sellers are leaning against resistance above too.  

So the battle continues and it is a good one. Buyers and sellers are fighting and defending their respective levels.  

At some point, there will be a break and a run. For the time being buyers are comfortable above 112.20 and sellers are comfortable staying below the 100 hour MA at 112.497 and the 200 hour MA at 112.638.  "The market" is trying to decide. It'll figure it out at some point.  

PS there is room to roam