The kiwi just can't catch a break
The kiwi's decline was something highlighted last week here already, and today's signs are not really encouraging for a bounce back to say the least.
On the daily chart, NZD/USD has broken below the 200-day MA (blue line) but the key break is the one of the 38.2 retracement level @ 0.7187. That level held twice - once in February and once in March, but yesterday's decline and the follow through so far today sees it fall below the key support level.
That opens up the pair to test further downside at the 100-day MA (red line) near 0.7128 and the 50.0 retracement level @ 0.7110. That will be the next key battleground for the kiwi.
Commodities in general are not having a good last couple of weeks and that is still weighing on the kiwi more than anything else. Yesterday's GDT price auction results were not very encouraging either.
The pair is going to be hit by a combo of central bank risk in next 16 hours or so as we have the Fed and the RBNZ coming up. The bigger of the two and the most likely to have an impact is of course the Fed, so that will be the next key risk event to watch out for. The RBNZ meeting is expected to be status quo - pretty much a non-event.
