Below the 100 hour MA too
In NZD, the 2Q CPI will be released after the close, the expectation is for the 2nd straight 0.5% gain (1Q was also up 0.5%). The YoY is expected to rise to 1.6% from 1.1% last quarter. The inflation is still below the targeted rate, but the YoY is at least moving back in the right direction.
What levels are in play for the report in the new day?
Looking at the hourly chart below, the price chopped higher in trading today but once the 200 hour MA and the 50% was hit (green line), the sellers leaned and the price wandered lower. Later the price fell back below the 100 hour MA at 0.6776 and the price has stayed below it as well.
Needless to say, a move above the 100 and then 200 hour MA would increase the bullish bias for the pair. To do so, the market will be looking for something higher than the expectations.
On a weaker number, the pair will look down toward the 0.6746-52. That area has been home to some swing levels going back to June 28th (see yellow area in the chart below). A move below (on something weaker than 1.5% I would think) would target the recent lows starting with Friday's low at 0.6725. The low for July comes in at 0.6687 on July 3rd.
If the number comes around the expected 1.5% (and +0.5% for the month) the 200 hour MA will be eyed as resistance and the 0.6746-52 will be eyed as support.
