The July Labour Force Survey is due at 0130GMT
Employment change is the 'headline' figure, median expectation is +11K (Reuters survey) +10K (Bloomberg survey)
- The previous result (June survey) was +7.9K
Unemployment rate expected 5.8% (both Reuters and Bloomberg surveys)
- prior 5.8%
Participation rate expected 64.9%
- prior 64.9%
There is some chatter about on the 'rotation effect' (i.e. some survey participants rotate out of the survey each month, to be replaced by a fresh batch) having a big impact this month.
- The employment numbers are based on a survey of around 26,000 households a month
- The survey sample rotates each month
- 12.5% of the sample is new each month (in effect, due to an approximate 94% response rate to the survey the rotation is closer to 20% of the sample)
- For the June survey (last month's result), October 2015 rotated out .... October 2015 had a huge +58.6K headline result
- For the July survey (what we'll get today), the November 2015 batch will rotate out (November 2015 headline was an even bigger +71.4K)
So, this should be expected to weigh on today's result somewhat - if the 'headline' does come in as expected it should be viewed as a strong result and I reckon it should be enough to send the AUD higher.
The bigger picture, of course, is slower employment growth & restrained wage growth, factors which are weighing on growth in the economy. Although, as I noted yesterday, the picture ahead painted by the Westpac Leading Index is showing positive signs.
