Technical Analysis

GBPUSD in a holding pattern - bias for a move lower - levels and risks ahead

Chart and technical analysis via Lloyds note Prices sit in a holding pattern over 1.2845 support. Long term, we believe we are in the final stages of the cycle that started back in 2007 at 2.1160.

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USDJPY Thu 17 Aug

USDJPY tests lows as stocks continue to slide

Nasdaq down -100 points now The USDJPY and some of the JPY crosses are pushing to new session lows as the stock market continues it's slide. The Nasdaq is down -100 points now or 1.56%

USDCHF Thu 17 Aug

USDCHF moves to new session lows

Flight to safety as stocks/terrorist attack/Washington are a concern The USDCHF is trading to new session lows as stocks continue to fall, the action in Barcelona is being called a terrorist attack, and the uncertainty in Washington weigh on equities.

FOREX Thu 17 Aug

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD fails for the 3rd day on break of 100 day MA

Trend line above. 100 day MA below The GBPUSD continues the waffle that has kept the pair confined over the last 2+ days.  Looking at the hourly chart above, the overlay of the 100 day mA at 1.2864 was broken for the 3rd straight day today. The breaks on Tuesday and again yesterday could not muster much momentum and today it was not the exception. The low stalled against the underside of a broken trend line, and we saw a bounce higher.   Buyers?  Well some are leaning and the failed breaks have to be a concern.

USDCAD Thu 17 Aug

USDCAD on the move. Trades at session highs.

Crude oil down about -$0.20.  The USDCAD is  on the move. It trades at session highs. Crude oil is down about -$0.20 currently at $46.60. The low reached $46.46. Oil had a large draw down in inventories yesterday but it did not help prices. Lower oil prices tend to weaken the CAD (USDCAD higher), although that relationship can disengage. Yesterday, crude oil was lower but the USDCAD followed the USD lower.

USDJPY Thu 17 Aug

USDJPY bouncing. Cohn rumor denied.

Careful out there...  The markets are subject/vulnerable to headline news and that can be dangerous to trading as they can happen at any time. The latest is the Cohn rumors are being denied. That has led to a quick run up back in the USDJPY.  The denial is from Axxios reporter on Twitter.

USDCHF Thu 17 Aug

Forex technical analysis: USDCHF hitting the skids

Flight into safety The Gary Cohn unconfirmed story continues to have a negative impact. The S&P  is down -14.0 points or -0.57%. The Nasdaq is doen -0.83% now.  Gold is up $6.00.

USDJPY Thu 17 Aug

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY down and up in trading today. Lots of stuff in the 109.99-110.03 area.

100 and 200 hour MA near day's range midpoint The  100 and 200 hour MA and the 50% midpoint of the days trading range come in at 110.01-038. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart are at 109.99 up to 110.038.  So that makes the 109.99 to 110.038 an area where the buyers and sellers are neutral for today. 

EURUSD Thu 17 Aug

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves to a lower low for August and bounces

3rd straight day of lower lows for August On Tueday, the price took out the August 9th low by 2 pips and bounced On Wednesday, the price took out the Tuesday low by 6 pips and bounced

FOREX Thu 17 Aug

The AUD is the strongest. The EUR is the weakest.

The snapshot of the strongest and the weakest as North American traders enter for the day The AUD is the strongest currency as the NY traders enter for the day, although most of the gains are vs. the weakest currency....the EUR. The EUR was on a downward tract as CPI remains well below the 2% target.  The ECB also jawboned the EUR down in meeting minutes.  That helped set the third consecutive day of a lower low for August.

AUDUSD Wed 16 Aug

AUDUSD follows the dollar before the employment report in the new day.

Moves to the 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart. Later in the new trading day, the Australian employment report will be released. The expectations are for the employment change to show a 20.0K increase.   The unemployment rates is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%.  

DOLLAR Wed 16 Aug

USDJPY and EURUSD reach next targets

EURUSD moves above the 100 and 200 hour MAs. Stocks turn negative The EURUSD has moved above the next targets at the 100 and 200 hour MA with little problem (at 1.1767-68).  Buyers taking more control.


Dollar index turns flat. Erases early gains.

Falls to 93.822 The dollar is moving lower and has erased the early gains.   The USDJPY is trading down to the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 110.47. 

EURUSD Wed 16 Aug

EURUSD waffles back and forth near lows

Holds the 100 bar MA on the 5- minute chart. The EURUSD is down on the day and trades near the lows.  Intraday, on the 5-minute chart, the pair has stalled against the 100 bar MA (blue line). That MA comes in at 1.1711.  The 1.1711 is the swing high from August 2015.  Key level intraday.  

FOREX Wed 16 Aug

Societe Generale: EURUSD quietly summoning up the energy for a push to 1.2000

Support at 1.1610 Societe Generale cross asset research notes that the EURUSD is still way to high when looking through the lens of any kind of yield differential.

USDCAD Wed 16 Aug

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD trading lower after big drawdown

Breaking to new session and below MAs, but rebounding a little.... The USDCAD is trading at new session lows and in the process moved below the 200 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at  the 1.2700 area.  The pair earlier fell below a trend line on the hourly chart and the 100 hour MA at 1.27215. That MA is now risk for shorts. 

GBPUSD Wed 16 Aug

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD trades back below 100 day MA

Trades in an up and down narrow range Cable is trading up and down today in a narrow 62 pip trading range. The 22 day average range is 89 pips.    The price action has taken the price below the low from yesterday during the London morning session.  That low reached 1.12840. The low yesterday reached 1.2846.  The low today was the lowest level since July 12th and took the price below the 100 day MA at 1.28598, trend line support at the same level and the 61.8% of the move up from the June low at 1.2847.  The problem?   Like yesterday, the momentum faded.  Sellers were forced to buy back and the move back above the cluster of support.   

DOLLAR Wed 16 Aug

Dollar is a little lower after data.

Housing starts and building permits are lower than expectations The US housing data today came out weaker than expectations and the dollar retreats a bit, but not much. The DOE inventory data and the FOMC meeting minutes are to come but not until 10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT and 2 PM ET/1800 GMT respectively.


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