December 15, 2017
As the North American traders enter for the day, the NZD is a strongest currency, while the GBP is the weakest.
Yesterday the NZD was the weakest, falling from the 38.2% retracement at 0.7029 back down to the swing high going back to November 9. Today, the market bottomed against that old level and took back yesterday's fall. It now retests the 38.2% at 0.7029. A move above will be eyed in the NY session.
USDJPY trades to yet another low. EURUSD moves back to 1.1800
The dollar has moved lower. The moves corresponds with some concerns about the tax legislation vote. Republican Senators Lee and Rubio have expressed they may vote "no" as a result of the child tax credit proposal.
New lows for the week too.
The USDJPY has moved below the trend line connecting the low from November 27 and yesterday (at 112.56). The pair has also taken out the low from yesterday at 112.45. The price printed 112.415 so far.
Pair has been consolidating at 2017 highs over the last few months
The EURJPY has moved below the 100 bar MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 132.908 and the 132.66 levels respectively. It also cracked below an upward sloping trend line at the 132.91 area. The combination has sent the pair lower. Risk is now at those level with the 132.66 the best case for the sellers/bears.
EURUSD fall being helped by a decline in the EURGBP too
The EURGBP is down testing the low for the day and the low for the week at 0.8772. The move lower is helping/following the EURUSD which just cracked below the 100 hour MA at 1.1777. Be aware that we just went through the 4 PM London fixing, so that may be having an impact on the pairs.
Falls back below 100 day MA and 200 hour MA
The EURUSD has moved below the 100 day MA and the 200 hour MAs at 1.1802 and 1.1795 respectively.
The price decline has now taken the price toward the 100 hour MA at 1.17769. The low just printed 1.1778. A move below opens the downside for the pair.
Yesterday, the price stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA/38.2% retracement
The USDCAD is higher on the day, but let's face it, the pair is not exactly racing in one direction or another. The last 6 trading days has seen the price range in a 105 pip trading range. The high reached 1.2891 on Tuesday. The low yesterday stalled just ahead of the low of the range at the 1.27866 level. That level was also home to the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.27972) and the 38.2% of the move from the December 5 low at 1.27866.
Old Trend line at 112.62. Sellers are trying to push below the line.
The USDJPY tumbled in trading yesterday after the market perceived the Fed to be more dovish given their inflation outlook. The price fell below a lower trend line in the process, but bounced back.
Buyers stall the fall
The GBPUSD fell - perhaps in sympathy with the EURUSD. The pair moved down to the 200 hour MA at 1.3400 and an old trend line at 1.3393. The price moved below that trend line earlier in the week and tried to stay below. Yesterday, the price moved back above on the Fed. In the early Asian session, the price retested the trend line and held support.
Price moves higher and back down
The ECB raised projections for growth (2.3% from 1.8%), and inflation for 2018 at least (from 1.2% to 1.4%) but then said that the gains in inflation are mainly from food and energy.
ECBs Draghi will start press conference at 8:30 AM ET/ 1330 GMT
The ECB decision has led to a fairly limited response so far saying they expect to keep rates unchanged for an extended period of time. The EURUSD has had a high of 1.1830 and a low of 1.18247. That is not a heck of a lot of movement.
AUDUSD moves back to the 50% midpoint of the move up from Dec 2016 low
The dollar is getting hurt on the back of the Fed's inflation concerns and in the process the AUDUSD - which was already rising today - has moved even higher.
Falls below 38.2 and trend line.
The USDJPY has also been hit over the last few minutes. The price moved below the 38.2% at 112.634 (close risk now) and also peaked below a lower trend line at 112.50. Stay below the 112.634 on the rebound will make holding the trend line more difficult now. Sellers are trying to make the next push with the 112.29 the 50% of the move up, as the next downside target on continued weakness.
100 day MA, 200 hour MA and 38.2% retracement at 1.1800 area
The price is moving above the level as I type and trades at 1.1810.
The 1.18287 is the next target. That equals the 50% of the move down (see chart above).
Key area tested
The dollar sell off after the FOMC statement, took the price up to and briefly above, the underside of the broken trend line at 1.33816 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.33764. The high price reached 1.3385. The price is currently trading at 1.3368 area.
USDJPY falls to 38.2% target. EURUSD rises toward cluster of resistance....stalls
The EURUSD is rallying toward the key cluster of resistance defined by the 100 day MA, 38.2% and 200 hour MA at the 1.1800-02 area. The high has reached 1.1795 so far. Key resistance.