Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

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Author: Adam Button
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Forex news for North American trading on October 20, 2017:

Markets:

  • S&P 500 up 13 points to record 2574
  • Gold down $10 to $1280
  • WTI crude up 18-cents to $51.47
  • US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 2.38%
  • GBP leads, CAD lags

A weak retail sales report dashed hopes for a Bank of Canada rate hike and sent USD/CAD more than 130 pips higher. The pair was lower on the day at 1.2480 heading into the data but jumped up to 1.2580 on the initial headlines. That area offered some resistance because it had twice fended off rallies in October. Later in the day, however, it gave way and the gains continued to 1.2620, the best level since Aug 31.

EUR/USD was on an upswing as New York arrived and hit 1.1820 but it was all downhill from there as it sagged into the London close, when it hit a session low of 1.1763. A bounce to 1.1785 came late but all of Thursday's gain was wiped out.

Cable made big moves in Asia and Europe as it performed a 60-pip round trip but it was flat in North America as it opened around 1.3180 and finished there. A minor dip to 1.3160 into the options cut was picked up afterwards but offers at 1.3200 wouldn't give way.

USD/JPY had an upward tilt, along with the unstoppable rise in stocks. The big story under the surface was the bond market as the prospects for a tax cut grow. US 10s are approaching 2.40% and that's one of the reasons USD/JPY was able to break above 113.44, which was the Oct high. After getting above, there wasn't much follow through with a high at 113.57 but there wasn't a reversal either.

NZD has been a major dog over the past two days. A blip higher to 0.7000 early in North America was wiped out and it hit a low of 0.6954 later in a whimper on the way to the finish line.

Have a great weekend.

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Author: Mike Paterson
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Forex news for the European morning trading session 20 Oct 2017

News:

Data:
A session that's seen the greenback hold on to a few US tax-led gains but also a perky pound as EURGBP sell interest helps support GBP

After an early look below 1.3100 we've seen GBPUSD climb steadily through various levels of resistance/sell interest to post 1.3180 as EURGBP retreated to 0.8955 after failing into the strong 0.9030 resistance area. EURUSD has been pinned around 1.1800 with large option expiries in play there.

General yen and swiss franc weakness has also helped GBPJPY and GBPCHF higher with USDJPY rising to post 113.44 session highs from 113.13 and USDCHF to 0.9837 from 0.9795

Elsewhere it's all been a little bit quieter with USDCAD and AUDUSD trading tightly and NZD still on the back foot after yesterday's decision by First Party to back the Labour/Green coalition.

Oil spent most of the session in retreat but WTI has found support/demand below $51.00 from $51.80 highs and Brent finding demand around $56.50 from $57.30 highs 

Gold also found itself on the back foot falling from $1290 in Asia to $1280 in this session but since clawed back some losses to $1283.50

Equities opened in positive mood and have remained so.

Canadian CPI your data risk at 12.30 GMT then US housing data at 14.00 GMT. US Fed's Mester speaks at 18.00 GMT then Yellen at 23.30 GMT

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex news for Asia trading Friday 20 October 2017

It was a quiet session to begin with. News out of Spain that Catalan separatists ask supporters to take cash out of banks on Friday morning might cause a bit of stir in early Europe. EUR barely budged though.

There were also a few comments out of the EU meeting re Brexit - comments from May and Merkel most notably. There was little there to move GBP too much - May pleading for progress in the talks to the next stage and Merkel saying ... nope. Nothing new added.

We did get a (very) minor flurry on headlines that advisers to President Trump are leaning towards Taylor or Powell (Powell had been tipped as a favourite a few hours beforehand:

And, then, the action started:

The USD moved sharply higher across the board, yields on USTs jumped. Check the links out for a summary of the details of the passage, but do also note that this is just one step on the path and there is much to be done still.

USD/JPY moved up through 112.80 and continued climbing to circa 113.30. EUR/USD dropped, USD/CHF higher and cable fell.AUD/USD dropped from around 0.7870 to around 0.7830 and the NZD/USD, which had already been slipping a little fell toward 0.6970. USD/CAD added 30+ points also.

Like I said - USD strength across the board.

Gold, too, its down around 8USD on the session.

And, a reminder - it's the Japanese election on Sunday:

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Author: Greg Michalowski
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Forex news for NY trading on October 19, 2017.

A snapshot of other markets as the NY trading day comes to a close shows:

  • Spot gold rose $8.50 or 0.67% to $1289.79
  • WTI crude oil fell -$0.65 ore -1.21% to $51.40
  • US yields were lower on the day: 2 year 1.532%, down -3.2 bp.   5 year 1.9532%, down -4 bp.  10 year 2.3142%, down -3.1 bp.  30 year 2.833%, down -2.3 bp
  • US stocks are ending mixed
It has been 30 years since the largest 1-day percentage drop in the US stock market. It happened on a Monday and as a result, was called "Black Monday" by the newspapers and the media at the time. 

On that October 19th in 1987, the US stock market fell about 23%. The lessons learned from that day helped to lead to circuit breakers that slowed subsequent market declinesThis is, and there thankfully has not been a day like that day since.

Nevertheless,  Todaythe stock market today, opened lower (S&P down -15 points, the Dow down about -105, the Nasdaq was down -67 points) and there were some uneasy feelings.  The

However by the end of the day, the indices recovered and although the Nasdaq closed down -0.29%, the Dow and the S&P had small gains. That was good enough for yet another record close for the 30 large cap stocks that make up the Dow. 

So stories were told and relived on the business news channels (including my own recollections here), but history did not repeat itself.  

As far as economic catalysts today, the Philly Fed Business index, and the weekly jobless claims came out better than expected (although claims are still being influenced by hurricane data gathering problems).  Later the leading index for September was weaker than expectations at -0.2% vs +0.1%.  

The bigger market moving news came out of NZ with the forming of a coalition government. That news send the NZD pairs down sharply. The declines of the kiwi against the major currencies on the day ranged from -1.35% vs the GBP to down -2.26% vs the EUR (see chart below). Those are pretty hefty % declines for a single day. However, compared to the NY opening, the changes in the session were minimal (most of the damage had been done). 


The strongest currency for the day was the EUR.   The USD - in addition to the gains against the NZD - was higher vs the GBP (+0.34%), the CAD (+0.13%), but lower vs the EUR (-0.55%), the JPY (-0.35%), the CHF (-0.54%) and the AUD (-0.43%).

Some technical lelvels to eye in the new trading day:
  • For the NZDUSD the 100 week MA comes in at 0.7030.  That will be a barometer for buyers and sellers in the new trading day.
  • The USDJPY has found support against the 100 hour MA the last 4 or so tests. That MA comes in at 112.33.  Stay above is more bullish. We trade at 112.52 at the end of the trading day. The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 112.54. 
  • The EURUSD stalled at the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.1856. Last week the pair stalled against that level on 4 separate 4-hour bars. The 1.1876 is the swing low from June 2010. Last week the high reached 1.1879 before falling back to 1.1729 low this week.  The pair is trading at 1.1848 currently.  Get above the MA line at 1.1856 is step one.  Get above 1.1876-79 is step 2 for the bulls.  For sellers, stay below those levels nd get below 1.18219 (see post on the EURUSD here), and there should be more selling. 
  • The GBPUSD trading up and down in trading today. but closed lower and nearer the lows for the day. The 1.3121-22 area is home to swing levels going back to early October. Keep that level in mind on continued selling in the new trading day (trading at 1.3159)

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