Session Wraps - Major Forex Headlines wrapped up by trading session

Author: Mike Paterson
2

Forex trading news and economic data headlines 28 March 2017

News:

Data:

A session that's mainly seen a big fat finger all over the pause button again, despite a lot of noise offstage but not without opportunity for those keen enough to play it.

Plenty of rhetoric from the ECB and Brexit related know-nothings but it was the softer Spanish and German regional inflation data that caught the eye and we've seen EURUSD down to 1.0731 and EURGBP testing 0.8620 again. EURJPY had a look below 119.20 but found a little demand as USDJPY held option expiry related support at 111.00

That softness to EURGBP has underpinned GBPUSD helping it to hold 1.2400 on an earlier dip and we've back up through 1.2450 to post 1.2470 so far with GBPJPY also helping with a rally to 138.73 from 137.75

Equities have had a quiet time of it for the most part as have commodities and that's helped keep AUDUSD and USDCAD in tight ranges too

German CPI at 12.00 GMT then US GDP and weekly jobless claims at 12.30 GMT along with Canadian IPPI/RMPI.

US Fed heads Kaplan, Williams, and Dudley all in the mix too as is the Mexican interest rate decision.

Full calendar here

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 30 March 2017

A stronger USD nearly across the board here in Asia today, albeit in small ranges.

Fresh news and data flow was nearly non-existent, some data from Japan and Australia, and a rehash of the US $1tln US infrastructure 'plan' (no details as yet).

USD/JPY added 30-odd points to early levels, topping circa 111.40 on the session so far before giving a little back. The move took yen crosses mainly higher also, EUR/JPY turning around from circa 119.80.

EUR/USD has traded down a little, more or less steadily (and slowly) toward 1.0740 (not quite getting there though). A similar move for the CHF against the dollar, USD/CHF ticked higher to around 0.9980.  

Cable hung in there, it is basically unchanged on the session.

Can't say the same for the Australian dollar, it has drifted off a few points, as has the kiwi$.

Gold is down a few dollars on the session, oil is little changed.

There was a bit of pollie waffle:

A lacklustre day in Asia today, but be sure to tune in again on Friday - its Japanese inflation day!

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei -0.35%  
  • Shanghai -1.12%
  • HK -0.44%
  • ASX +0.29%

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Author: Greg Michalowski
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Forex news for trading on March 29, 2017.

In other markets:

  • Spot gold up $0.91 or +0.07%
  • WTI Crude oil +$1.09 or +2.25%
  • US stocks are mixed: S&P up +0.11. Nasdaq up +0.38%. Dow down -0.20%
  • US debt yields lower.  7 year auction was strong. 2 year 1.269%, -3.1 bp. 5 year 1.927%, -3.5 bp.  10 year 2.38%, -3.7 bp.
  • European stocks ended higher: German Dax up 0.44%, UK FTSE up 0.41%, France CAC up +0.45%, Spain Ibex -0.21%
Today was the day for the Article 50 trigger and indeed it happened. Actually the letter was signed at the start of the trading day (in the Asian session) and delivered later in the European session.  PM May spoke on it as did other officials in the UK and the EU.   Needless to say, it was old news, the process is just beginning. There will be jockeying for position, many meetings will take place. There will be ebbs and flows from both sides. What will make it difficult is the EU has to make it less than what they have now - or so you would think that might be a goal. Of course it will be country vs UK negotiating trade terms. So things could get muddy.  Overall, it will be a mess but day 1 is over and the world did not blow up.  In fact the GBP was mixed.  

In other news today, Fed speakers (Evans, Rosengren, WIlliams) are on board for more hikes in 2017.  That was a little supportive to the dollar, but I can't say the comments were really "market moving".  Pending home sales in the US came in much better than expectations at 5.5% vs 2.5% est.  It really did not move the needle much. 

The DOE Crude oil inventories increased by 867K, but that was not as great as the 2000K estimate. The "better number" (it was still an increase) sent oil prices were up over 2% on the day and that helped to send the USDCAD through the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.3365 and 1.3354 respectively.  The low reached 1.3321 - right around the lows from Monday's trading.  A move below that level will have the pair targeting the 100 day MA at 1.32935.  Last week, the price fell below the MA level for a few hours, but then shot back higher.  Look for buyers on a test of the key MA level.  

In the EU in a well timed ("well timed" because it came on a day that might have been more supportive to the EUR especially against the GBP), "sources" headline that read: "ECB POLICYMAKERS WARY OF MAKING FRESH POLICY-MESSAGE SHIFT IN APRIL, WORRIED ABOUT POTENTIAL YIELD SURGE - SOURCES", sent the EUR pairs lower.  That headline - and some more bearish technicals in the EURUSD - pushed the EURUSD and EURGBP lower.  The EURUSD fell by nearly 0.5% on the day and in the process fell below the 200 hour MA at 1.0798.  The low for the day reached 1.0740. There is good, good support at the 1.0700-06 in the new trading day.  Be aware for lurking buyers on a test.  For the EURGBP, the pair moved higher in the Asian session (up to 0.8734), then tumbled on the news all the way to 0.8672. The pair settled the day right around the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.8654-59 - a safe zone for the pair. 

So what about the GBPUSD?  The pair spend the first day of post Article 50, trading between a couple 200 bar MAs. On the tops sits the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.24677. On the bottom sits the 200 hour MA at 1.2378 (the price peaked slight above and slightly below each extreme but quickly rejected to moves).   IN between both those levels is the 100 day MA at 1.2418.  The market trading above and below it in the NY session without much care that it was there.   Let's just say, it acted like a neutral area for the pair.   In the new trading day, look for momentum nuances that might say the buyers or sellers are taking control. The expected bias would seem to be lower, BUT the market is pretty short GBP (at least that is what the commitment of traders says).  So you have to be careful. A short squeeze (i.e. getting above the aforementioned 1.2468 level) could materialize given the right push.  Watch the levels.  

Below is a snapshot of the strongest and weakest for the day. The AUD was the strongest, while the EUR was the weakest. 


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Author: Mike Paterson

Forex trading news and economic data headlines 28 March 2017

Article 50:

Other news:

Data:

All eyes on the UK/Europe and the Article 50 fallout after a GBP fall in Asia is partly covered ahead of UK PM May's speech to parliament at 11.30 GMT

GBPUSD had a delayed fall to 1.2376 in Asia after the announcement that May had signed the Article 50 letter and after another test we finally broke up through some decent offers/resistance at 1.2420. Stops were triggered to 1.2435 then a second wave of buying saw 1.2460, the area from where it first fell after a gradual USD demand retreat from 1.2550 yesterday.

EURGBP rallied to 0.8736 in Asia but has since fallen to test support/bids into 0.8650 and overall the pound has reversed a few of its losses as we wait on the next wave of rhetoric and detail.

USDJPY has slipped back to 110.92 from 111.30 as USD supply prevails . AUSDUSD has traded tightly while USDCAD has retreated from 1.3400 to 1.3355.

Not a lot on the data slate to look forward to although we do have a couple of CB talking heads but it's all about Brexit today.

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More session wraps for your convenience.

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