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Author: Adam Button

Bank of Canada Governor spoke to the Globe & Mail

An interview with BOC Governor Poloz was published on the weekend in the Globe & Mail. The comments indicate he's not going to pre-warn markets ahead of the next rate hike.

He wants to set an example.

"I'm confident that other central banks, now that we are getting much more into normalcy, will gradually temper down the details around their forward guidance, too."

At the moment, the note about 'caution' in the BOC's statement has led markets to believe he won't hike until it's removed.

"I'm not going to judge whether the market got it right or not. But it does seem like the market has a tendency to seize on a new word as if it's a new secret code," he says.

"Caution does not mean sitting back and doing nothing," he said.

Poloz topped it off with somewhat of an urgent call to get interest rates to 2%.

"We need to get ourselves up there for real, and to the 2-per-cent zone, so we have room to manoeuvre for the next shock that comes along."

Another development is that starting in 2018, Poloz or a deputy will be tapped to deliver a speech after the BOC meeting, in order to clarify the central bank's thinking.

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Author: Adam Button
3

Chicago Fed President Evans explains his dissent

Statement from Evans Chicago Fed President Charles Evans voted against the latest rate hike, in a move that was somewhat of a surprise. He his rational today.

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Chicago Fed President Evans explains his dissent


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
3


Statement from Evans Chicago Fed President Charles Evans voted against the latest rate hike, in a move that was somewhat of a surprise. He his rational today.

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Friday 15 December 2017 trade ideas thread
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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

More on the BOJ Tankan - big manufacturers' sentiment to an 11-year

Reuters and the Nikkei have takes up on the Bank of Japan's Q4 2017 Tankan report I posted earlier on it here: BOJ Q4 Tankan survey out now - positive outlook still

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More on the BOJ Tankan - big manufacturers' sentiment to an 11-year


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Reuters and the Nikkei have takes up on the Bank of Japan's Q4 2017 Tankan report I posted earlier on it here: BOJ Q4 Tankan survey out now - positive outlook still

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
18

BOJ headline - "said to tweak message as dissenter calls for more easing"

Bank of Japan is said to tweak message as dissenter calls for more easing That's the Bloomberg headline Nothing further right now ... Remember the calls from Bank of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka to expand stimulus?

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BOJ headline - "said to tweak message as dissenter calls for more easing"


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
18
Bank of Japan is said to tweak message as dissenter calls for more easing That's the Bloomberg headline Nothing further right now ... Remember the calls from Bank of Japan board member Goushi Kataoka to expand stimulus?

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

HSBC on the PBOC rate hikes and where to for the yuan in 2018

Remarks from HSBC overnight on the People's Bank of China moves yesterday (what moves, you ask - check 'em out here from yesterday: ) OK .... back to HSBC (in brief and bolding mine):

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HSBC on the PBOC rate hikes and where to for the yuan in 2018


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Remarks from HSBC overnight on the People's Bank of China moves yesterday (what moves, you ask - check 'em out here from yesterday: ) OK .... back to HSBC (in brief and bolding mine):

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.6113 (vs. yesterday at 6.6033)

People's Bank of China yuan mid rate for the session's trading. For OMOs:Net 150bn yuan injection today For the week, net 80 bn yuan injection via OMOs

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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.6113 (vs. yesterday at 6.6033)


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
People's Bank of China yuan mid rate for the session's trading. For OMOs:Net 150bn yuan injection today For the week, net 80 bn yuan injection via OMOs

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BOJ Q4 Tankan survey out now - positive outlook still

The Bank of Japan survey of firms, conducted 4 times a year Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, 25       - expected 24, prior was 22  Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, 23

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BOJ Q4 Tankan survey out now - positive outlook still


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
The Bank of Japan survey of firms, conducted 4 times a year Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, 25       - expected 24, prior was 22  Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, 23

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
3

Here is the full transcript of Draghi's ECB press conference

European Central Bank publishes the verbatim thing, Draghi and Constâncio's presser LInk: PRESS CONFERENCE -- Never let it be said that ForexLive has reduced its efforts to help insomniacs nod off, no matter where they are around the globe

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Here is the full transcript of Draghi's ECB press conference


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
3
European Central Bank publishes the verbatim thing, Draghi and Constâncio's presser LInk: PRESS CONFERENCE -- Never let it be said that ForexLive has reduced its efforts to help insomniacs nod off, no matter where they are around the globe

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BOJ Tankan report for Q4 due today (survey of business)

The results of the latest Bank of Japan tankan survey will come out at 2350 GMT  - The Tankan is a survey of both manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan. You'll see the Reuters Tankan more often, its a survey conducted by Reuters (duh) on a monthly basis. the most recent of these shows, again, confidence and conditions are good amongst Japanese manufacturers, and for service firms also.

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BOJ Tankan report for Q4 due today (survey of business)


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
The results of the latest Bank of Japan tankan survey will come out at 2350 GMT  - The Tankan is a survey of both manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan. You'll see the Reuters Tankan more often, its a survey conducted by Reuters (duh) on a monthly basis. the most recent of these shows, again, confidence and conditions are good amongst Japanese manufacturers, and for service firms also.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BoC's Poloz says wants the economy to run hotter for a while

Governor of the Bank of Canada Steve Poloz Headlines via Reuters Earlier comments from Poloz: Sounds like it'll be a while before Mr. P is hiking again

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BoC's Poloz says wants the economy to run hotter for a while


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Governor of the Bank of Canada Steve Poloz Headlines via Reuters Earlier comments from Poloz: Sounds like it'll be a while before Mr. P is hiking again

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Author: Adam Button
5

BOC's Poloz: Caution isn't a code word for being on hold

Poloz continues - My interpretation of 'caution' is careful, watching for signs of a mistake - We haven't learned much from the two rate hikes, it's early days still That's a very hawkish line. It definitely shows Poloz is thinking about hiking rates.

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BOC's Poloz: Caution isn't a code word for being on hold


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
5
Poloz continues - My interpretation of 'caution' is careful, watching for signs of a mistake - We haven't learned much from the two rate hikes, it's early days still That's a very hawkish line. It definitely shows Poloz is thinking about hiking rates.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Mexico central bank raises benchmark interest rate to 7.25% from 7.0%

Hike was expected The USDMXN has move lower today.  Looking at daily chart, the pair moved up from the 200 day MA (reached toward the end of November - currently at 18.43088) and stalled near the 38.2% of the move down from the 2017 high (at 19.1968).  

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Mexico central bank raises benchmark interest rate to 7.25% from 7.0%


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0
Hike was expected The USDMXN has move lower today.  Looking at daily chart, the pair moved up from the 200 day MA (reached toward the end of November - currently at 18.43088) and stalled near the 38.2% of the move down from the 2017 high (at 19.1968).  

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Author: Adam Button
1

BOC's Poloz says Bitcoin is more like gambling than investing

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz - Says CAD is respected and wants market to continue to have faith in it There's nothing wrong with gambling if you're right.

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BOC's Poloz says Bitcoin is more like gambling than investing


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz - Says CAD is respected and wants market to continue to have faith in it There's nothing wrong with gambling if you're right.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
5

BOC Poloz: increasingly confident economy will need less monetary stimulus over time


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
5
Headlines from the BOC's Poloz

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Author: Adam Button
2

BOC's Poloz: Increasingly confident economy will need less stimulus over time

Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz in Toronto - Reiterates that BOC will 'continue to be cautious' on rates - Labor market slack poses downside risks to inflation forecast There is something for everyone here but the main thrust is more optimistic and a bit more hawkish.

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BOC's Poloz: Increasingly confident economy will need less stimulus over time


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz in Toronto - Reiterates that BOC will 'continue to be cautious' on rates - Labor market slack poses downside risks to inflation forecast There is something for everyone here but the main thrust is more optimistic and a bit more hawkish.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
3

Minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating

Hawks were easily outnumbered though: Source There is a story on the wires saying that a minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating.  However, those hawks were easily outnumbered.

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Minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
3
Hawks were easily outnumbered though: Source There is a story on the wires saying that a minority of ECB rate setters wanted to signal guidance may change if inflation keeps accelerating.  However, those hawks were easily outnumbered.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate back above 3%. Rises to 3.3% for 4Q growth.

Up from 2.9% on the last reading. In their own words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate back above 3%. Rises to 3.3% for 4Q growth.


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0
Up from 2.9% on the last reading. In their own words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on December 14, up from 2.9 percent on December 8. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 2.5 percent to 3.2 percent after yesterday's Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Author: Adam Button

IMF: Fed's future moves in policy rates should be gradual

IMF comments at the regular press briefing - Too early to predict economic impact of US tax cuts - Fed on right track, supports recent decisions As if anyone at the Fed cares what the IMF thinks.

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IMF: Fed's future moves in policy rates should be gradual


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
IMF comments at the regular press briefing - Too early to predict economic impact of US tax cuts - Fed on right track, supports recent decisions As if anyone at the Fed cares what the IMF thinks.

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Author: Adam Button
5

Draghi Q&A: The output gap will close in 2018

Draghi continues to answer questions - The design of the QE program was not discussed today - The economic recovery is more advanced in the US than in Europe, especially relating to wages The euro is at the lows of the day, which is surely what Draghi was hoping for.

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Draghi Q&A: The output gap will close in 2018


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
5
Draghi continues to answer questions - The design of the QE program was not discussed today - The economic recovery is more advanced in the US than in Europe, especially relating to wages The euro is at the lows of the day, which is surely what Draghi was hoping for.

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Author: Adam Button

Draghi Q&A: We're increasingly confident on inflation path

Draghi answers questions from reporters - Forecast revisions go 'in the right direction' - Corporate bond purchases were not discussed. They're a more remote possibility now than 6 months ago Draghi hasn't given any kind of hint about stronger inflation. The euro hit the highs of the day on higher growth forecasts but has spilled down to 1.1824 from 1.1860 because he hasn't followed that up with a signal on higher inflation, aside from 'more confidence'.

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Draghi Q&A: We're increasingly confident on inflation path


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Draghi answers questions from reporters - Forecast revisions go 'in the right direction' - Corporate bond purchases were not discussed. They're a more remote possibility now than 6 months ago Draghi hasn't given any kind of hint about stronger inflation. The euro hit the highs of the day on higher growth forecasts but has spilled down to 1.1824 from 1.1860 because he hasn't followed that up with a signal on higher inflation, aside from 'more confidence'.

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Author: Adam Button
1

ECB forecasts: Sees 2018 growth at 2.3% vs 1.8% prior

Highlights of the ECB economic forecasts - 2017 seen at 2.4% vs 2.2% prior - 2019 seen at 1.9% vs 1.7% - 2020 growth seen at 1.7% Those are some fairly big upgrades and the euro likes them. Highs of the day at 1.1860 in EUR/USD. On that note, Draghi said a downside risk was foreign exchange movements.

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ECB forecasts: Sees 2018 growth at 2.3% vs 1.8% prior


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Highlights of the ECB economic forecasts - 2017 seen at 2.4% vs 2.2% prior - 2019 seen at 1.9% vs 1.7% - 2020 growth seen at 1.7% Those are some fairly big upgrades and the euro likes them. Highs of the day at 1.1860 in EUR/USD. On that note, Draghi said a downside risk was foreign exchange movements.

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Author: Adam Button

Draghi opening statement: New forecasts signal strong pace of economic growth

Draghi comments after the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged - Very favourable financial conditions still needed - Domestic price pressures remain muted and have yet to show signs of a convincing upward trend QE guidance was unchanged. One notable change was that there is a "significant reduction in economic slack" that's a change from "gradual reduction" in October.

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Draghi opening statement: New forecasts signal strong pace of economic growth


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Draghi comments after the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged - Very favourable financial conditions still needed - Domestic price pressures remain muted and have yet to show signs of a convincing upward trend QE guidance was unchanged. One notable change was that there is a "significant reduction in economic slack" that's a change from "gradual reduction" in October.

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Author: Justin Low
9

ECB leaves key interest rates, QE on hold

European Central Bank rate decision - 14 Dec 2017 As expected, all unchanged. Here are the headlines: Nothing substantial from the ECB statement. EUR/USD slightly lower on the decision by about 10 pips to 1.1826 now.

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ECB leaves key interest rates, QE on hold


Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
9
European Central Bank rate decision - 14 Dec 2017 As expected, all unchanged. Here are the headlines: Nothing substantial from the ECB statement. EUR/USD slightly lower on the decision by about 10 pips to 1.1826 now.

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Author: Justin Low
5

BOE leaves rates unchanged at 0.50%

Latest decision by the Bank of England - 14 Dec 2017 All as expected, headlines: GBP/USD dropping a little, about 25 pips or so. Nothing new, the limited and gradual comments echo those in November.

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BOE leaves rates unchanged at 0.50%


Author: Justin Low
Category: Central Banks
5
Latest decision by the Bank of England - 14 Dec 2017 All as expected, headlines: GBP/USD dropping a little, about 25 pips or so. Nothing new, the limited and gradual comments echo those in November.

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