This via analysis from investment bank Piper Sandler should be no surprise to anyone:

  • U.S. federal spending "is the biggest threat to disinflation and lower interest rates"

Piper Sandler cite a projected $1.8 trillion deficit in the 2024 fiscal year, or 6.5% of GDP:

  • "High government spending--federal, state, and local--is measurably supporting GDP, and keeping inflation sticky,"
  • persistent deficits "weigh on potential GDP, depressing incomes & living standards, while lifting the poverty rate."

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Yep, and of course, being an election year we can expect all sorts of extra pork barrelling ahead.

Huge spending bill passes 50-49

This lot spend like its not even their money. Oh, wait ...