A note from Goldman Sachs US economists concludes on a hopeful note, the bank expects tax reform, just not soon.
From the note, in brief:
- The Senate's health care legislation appears to lack the necessary support to pass, and while there is a chance the effort could be revived, this looks increasingly difficult ... we believe enactment of much more narrowly-focused health legislation is still possible this year
- The House budget resolution that will be released July 19 will provide some fresh clues regarding tax reform. We expect the revenue target it provides for tax reform to be roughly revenue-neutral, which could disappoint expectations of a larger tax cut ... this week marks only the start of the process, and the Senate may take a different approach several weeks from now.
- While there has been some discussion of a debt limit increase prior to the August congressional recess, we continue to believe an increase is much more likely to be approved in late September or very early October
- Despite recent legislative setbacks, we continue to believe that a tax bill is more likely than not to become law in 2018, though there remain many unanswered questions ... Some details of a potential tax reform framework are likely to emerge over the next several weeks, but we do not expect a formal proposal until at least October, after other fiscal deadlines have been addressed.
(bolding above is mine)
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So, it looks like this sh*tshow politics will continue to be a driver in markets
