CBA on the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes today
Their summary:
- The RBA's July Board Minutes had a fairly positive tone overall.
- The RBA has acknowledged recent strength in the labour market and the associated positive effects on household incomes and spending.
- The RBA have estimated the neutral cash rate to be around 3.5%. This means monetary policy is still very expansionary. We are likely to see more on this topic in the coming months.
- Monetary conditions have tightened with the major lenders increasing rates and the Australian dollar up near 0.78USD
- We would need to see an upgrade to wage and inflation forecasts to put rate hikes on the table any sooner than 2018.
Looking ahead:
- There are several RBA officials speaking this week. The most important will be Deputy Governor Debelle's speech titled "Global Influences on Domestic Monetary Policy" at a lunch on Friday. As mentioned Assistant Governor Bullock also speaks on Friday and may discuss conditions in the housing market. Assistant Governor Heath speaks tomorrow. Next Wednesday is also an important day with the Q2 CPI released. And RBA Governor Lowe speaks at an ABE lunch in support of the Anika Foundation.
