UK June inflation data now out 18 July

  • 0.3% prev
  • yy 2.6% vs 2.7% exp/prev
  • core CPI yy 2.4% vs 2.6% exp/prev
  • CPIH yy 2.6% vs 2.7% exp/prev
  • RPI mm 0.2% vs 0.4% exp/prev
  • yy 3.5% vs 3.6% exp vs 3.7% prev
  • RPI ex mortgage payments yy 3.8% as exp vs 3.9% prev
  • PPI input NSA mm -0.4% vs -0.9% exp/prev
  • yy 9.9% vs 9.4% exp vs 12.1% prev
  • PPI output NSA mm 0.0% vs 0.1% exp/prev
  • yy 3.3% vs 3.4% exp/prev
  • HPI May yy 4.7% vs 3.0% exp vs 5.3% prev revised down from 5.6%

Bingo , the leak was right. Softer data and GBPUSD breaks down through 1.3050 and posts 1.3025 as I type. EURGBP 0.8846

GBP sell-side the weak side again but expect demand between 1.3000-20 and EURGBP supply around 0.8850.

Say the ONS:

  • Falling prices for motor fuels and certain recreational and cultural goods and services were the main contributors to the fall in the rate.
  • These downward contributions were partially offset by rising prices for furniture and furnishings.
  1. The CPIH inflation rate fell for the first time since April 2016, but remains higher than in recent years
  2. Transport continued to make a large contribution to the CPIH inflation rate in June 2017, although this has lessened in recent months
  3. Falling motor fuel prices contributed most to the fall in the CPIH 12-month rate between May and June 2017

Full report here