New Zealand January - March quarter CPI is due at 2245 GMT, which is 1845 US Eastern time.
Snippet previews:
BNZ:
- After the March inflation partials were released on Friday, we have revised down our forecast for Q1 headline CPI to 0.6% q/q and 3.9% on an annual basis. While this is above the RBNZ forecasts (0.4% q/q and 3.8% y/y), the Bank noted recent price increases are mostly due to volatile components at the April Monetary Policy Review.
KiwiBank:
- Price growth likely accelerated over the quarter, up 0.8% from 0.5%. However, on an annual basis we expect inflation to ease from 4.7% to 4.2%.
ASB:
- Our CPI pick is for a 0.7% quarterly increase in headline CPI in Q1, above February MPS expectations. Importantly however, the general cooling in annual inflation is expected continue, with annual headline inflation down to 4.1%, its lowest in almost 3 years.
- Rates of annual core inflation are also expected to cool. We expect lower tradable inflation will continue to be the key driver of cooling headline inflation. Easing global goods inflation is weighing on tradable prices, with lower fuel prices also impacting the quarterly print. On the other hand, non-tradable inflation remains sticky, with a solid 1.2% quarterly print pencilled in. Although a 6.5% lift in tobacco prices will largely be looked through.
- We still expect headline inflation to fall back below 3% by Q3 24. But uncertainty over the inflation outlook is still high. Lingering upside risks, including to tradable inflation, suggest the RBNZ will continue to err on the side of caution. We don’t anticipate rate cuts until November 2024.
Westpac:
- Q1 CPI will show domestic forces driving prices with headline and core rates still above the RBNZ's mid-point (Westpac f/c: 4.2%yr, market f/c: 4.0%yr).
