Forex technical analysis. Did the USDCHF go too far?

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdchf

Can the 100 hour MA hold

The USDCHF has been supported today on the back of the flight OUT of the safety of the CHF after N. Korea did not fire a missile over the weekend (and perhaps Irma not being as bad as expected).  The price on Friday dipped to the lowest level since August 2015.  That move was in anticipation of the worst. The rally today is taking at least part of that fear move away.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the move higher has been able to crack the 100 hour MA at 0.95178 currently. The 38.2% of the  move down from the August 31 high comes in at 0.9519 and was also broken.  The break today sent the price up toward a topside trend line and swing area at 0.95369 area.  Sellers leaned against that area on the first test.  PS the level is also home to swing levels going back to August 28th.

We are now testing the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement level.  Traders looking for more upside - more retracing of last weeks flight to safety move - would like this area to hold, and for the price to then crack above the topside trend line on the way to the 50% at 0.95497 and the 200 hour MA at 0.95605. 

A move below with more momentum, would muddy the water a bit for the pair. We should see further downside on the failure with a retest of the 0.9500 level as the next target.