This via eFX from JP Morgan Global FX Strategy Research
JP Morgan FX Technical Strategy Research argues that EUR/USD latest and decisive breaks above key-resistance barriers at 1.1300/16 (pivot/int. 76.4 %) and at 1.1453 (weekly trend)in EUR/USD constituted a long-term game change in favor of a broader recovery to 1.1617 and 1.1712/36 (2016/2015 highs/int. 38.2 %).
However, in the short-run, JPM argues that there is sense of a slight loss of up-momentum, which could be an early indication that a temporary and internal 4th wave setback to 1.1138/09 (minor 38.2 %) could be looming.
"It would take breaks below 1.1312/1.1292 (pivots) though for such a setback to receive confirming evidence. Above 1.1292 though, the bulls remain in control and an extension higher towards former tops at 1.1617 and at 1.1712 appears to be most likely.
A break below 1.1292 would on the other hand open the door for a deeper setback to atleast 1.1138/09 (minor 38.2 %) as the last good support to potentially prevent an even deeper setback into the main T-junction at 1.0612 (int. 76.4 % on higher scale)," JPM adds.
